$潍柴动力(SZ000338)$ $中国重汽(SZ000951)$
贴几点自己感兴趣的高盛9月23日研报内容：
1.Domestic HDT cycle: Better-than-expected 2025; uncertain 2026E。
其中三季度非常强劲，数据好看，其中中国重汽三季度出口超预期。
The truck and engine OEMs we met all commented on then very strong order momentum in 3Q25 (which is historically a slow season) and busy production schedule in Sep (e.g., only 2 days off for Sinotruk Jinan Truck).CVWorld shared that HDT domestic retail sales volume more than doubled yoy in the first -half of Sep (+c.20% mom). Should the current momentum sustain,CVWorld expects retail sales volume to be 75-80k units (up 80%+ yoy) and wholesale volume to exceed 100k units (likely 100-105k units, up 70%+ yoy) in Sep.
2.Powertrain mix shift: LNG comeback; accelerating electrification.
关于天然气发动机的概述比较乐观。The LNG comeback in 3Q25: CVWorld shared that LNG HDT sales volume (retail) was up +110% yoy in the first half of Sep and is on track to exceed monthly sales
volume of 20k units (vs. 9.4k units sold in Sep 2024), consistent with Weichai’s expectations. Looking at 4Q25, CVWorld sounded more optimistic about the sustainability of the LNG comeback, expecting the monthly run-rate to stay at 20k units (vs. Weichai’s expectation of 10k+ units, largely flattish yoy) and LNG HDT penetration to further recover in 2026. Positive factors include 1) the LNG/diesel price spread turning more favorable with falling LNG prices against rising diesel prices (especially after tightened regulation on teapot refineries) and 2) the delayed impact of the equipment upgrade program in the northern part of China given the relatively late roll-out ofthe local subsidy policies. A negative factor is mainly the seasonally higher LNG prices given that supply will prioritize residential use during the winter season, thereby leading to volatility in LNG prices.
关于电动化的评论，基于25年补贴政策及26年可能存在征收购置税担心，年底会有新的增长。若无技术上的实质性突破或者持续政策支持，电动化渗透率不会高于40%，目前长途牵引车领域渗透不足1%。其中中国重汽平均每台电动重卡亏损1.6至1.7万，2024年每台亏2万+。Electrification: Almost all industry participants expect electrification to furthern accelerate towards year-end to take advantage of the higher subsidies offered in the current replacement scheme (Rmb30k more vs. ICE-powered HDTs) and on the anticipation of the partial resumption of purchase tax for eHDTs into 2026E (to 5%
from currently 0%). eHDT penetration could be in the range of 25-26% for the full year, with monthly sales volume into 4Q25 likely continuing to break new highs. Without breakthroughs in battery technology and business models as well as help from favorable policies, CVWorld believes that truck electrification will likely be capped at below 40%, which assumes 90% of the short haul scenario (<300km) and part of the express delivery segment will likely be electrified, largely consistent with our view. Currently, the medium-to-long-haul scenario remains a blue ocean for electrification (penetration <1%), where both Huawei (ultra-fast charging) and CATL(battery-swapping) are aiming to build their ecosystems to enable higher infrastructure density and thereby facilitate penetration. That said, how to align the interests within the ecosystem as well as the investment-heavy nature of the business model remain the two concerns, based on our conversations with industry participants.
3.潍柴发动机市场份额损失主因动力总成结构变化不利（LNG占比减少，潍柴份额更高）、卡车类型变化（牵引车减少，潍柴份额更高）以及关键客户（如中国重汽和一汽）在天然气重卡领域份额损失。和我之前请教证券部工作人员的解释一致，中报后我贴过相关内容。反过来说，人家证券部的工作人员一视同仁，解释也是非常专业。
Engines: Weichai provided more color about its engine market share loss ytd, which is mainly driven by 1)unfavorable mix shift in powertrain (less LNG - where Weichai has a more dominant market share vs. diesel) and truck types (fewer tractors where Weichai has much higher market share vs. straght trucks) this year; 2) market share loss by key customers (e.g. Sinotruk and FAW) in the LNG HDT segment; 3) more aggressive pricing strategies adopted by engine competitors and higher in-house
engine sourcing by selected HDT OEMs. Weichai highlighted that straight trucks represent the majority of the China IV installed base given the sales mix during 2013-17 and their longer replacement cycle, which led to more replacement of straight trucks (where Weichai has lower diesel engine market share) vs. tractors this year on the back of the equipment upgrade program.
相关内容的核心要义和我近期前往本土市场走访调研吻合。调研不是一件简单的事。