$Upwork(UPWK)$ Discerning a potential fit aligning with our Tiger investment philosophy:
----- Era of AI is reshaping the job market landscape through an intangible way: freelancing is a never-fade choice with growing TAM with increasingly savvy employers and agile workers.
1. Deepening enterprise-wide AI acted as revenue driver. Q1 Revenue from AI related work increased by 25%, with prompt engineering increased by 52% yoy. (In Q1 earnings call, they mentioned “AI-related work is commanding approximately a 40% premium in terms of freelancer earnings”)
2. Recent M&A enabled AI-native platform: powered by Uma AI, drove up bid volume and client conversion with ongoing pipeline updates released in PR:
3. Strategic Pivot: Management is steering Upwork through a transitional phase, doubling down on its enterprise business via the “Business Plus Strategy.” This shift targets higher lifetime value (LTV) clients, unlocking stickier revenue streams and enhanced margins.
Synergies from recent AI-centric acquisitions are expected to further amplify operational leverage.
4. Job market recovery with subsequent rate-cut would be a macro booster.
5. Share repurchase still underway (up to $100 million).
Valuation: Currently trading at 7.7x forward P/E, 1.6x P/S, 2.6x Cash Value and 3.4x TBV and over 10% FCF yield.
Conservatively speaking, there could be short-term headwind but if executed right a 15x forward P/E could be within the grasp.
Not financial advice.