$DraftKings(DKNG)$ Polymarket 崛起，最新一轮可能120-150亿，Draft Kings暴跌

GS: DraftKings announced the acquisition of Railbird Technologies Inc. and its wholly owned subsidiary, Railbird Exchange, LLC, a federally licensed exchange designated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The acquisition will support DraftKings’ broader strategy to enter prediction markets, expanding its addressable opportunity through regulated event contracts. DraftKings also confirmed plans to launch DraftKings Predictions, a separate mobile app that will allow customers to trade regulated event contracts on real-world outcomes across finance, culture, and entertainment. The app is expected to launch in the coming months, per the company. The product will have the flexibility to connect to multiple exchanges, enabling DraftKings to offer one of the broadest suites of markets to its customers. The company also highlighted that the offering may expand into additional categories over time, deepening customer engagement and extending DraftKings’ addressable audience. On the later point, we see a growing debate in the space centering around if/when regulated sportsbooks will launch sports related prediction markets to compete with the likes of Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, etc. Based on our investor & industry conversations at the recent G2E conference (Global Gaming Expo in Las Vegas), key questions around sports related prediction markets included:

1. Will this cannibalize legal sportsbetting activity or grow the TAM via a wider pool of dollars related to financial products that have a higher risk profile (i.e. crypto trading, meme stocks, zero-day options contracts, etc.)? 2. Can sports prediction markets compete from a product standpoint (e.g. from a liquidity or technology perspective to offer a scaled parlay product)? 3. What implications do prediction markets have on structural hold and margins in the regulated sportsbetting market over time? 4. How will regulated sportsbooks manage their relationships with key stakeholders (e.g. state legislators, regulators & tribes)? How would those stakeholders respond if/when regulated sportsbooks launch a prediction market product? 5. Could the growth of sports related prediction markets lead states to accelerate their path to legalization of sportsbetting and/or iGaming? At a minimum, we see this announcement as a signal that DraftKings is serious about competing in the prediction markets space. We believe this will: 1) be an opportunity to offer an additional product to customers in legal states (LTV opportunity through cross-selling non-sports prediction markets) & 2) allow DraftKings the ability to acquire & engage customers in non-legal states ahead of potential legalization of sportsbetting/iGaming, as well as further engage the 18-20 year old demographic, similar to the DFS offering.

Longer term, we continue to see DraftKings as a company: 1) benefiting from the secular tailwinds from the online gaming TAM expansion opportunity leading to DKNG compounding revenue at 20%+; 2) driving improving unit economics of state cohorts as scale materializes & strong cross-sell opportunities arise, leading to an inflection in Adj. EBITDA & FCF profitability; & 3) having the ability to both invest against the growth opportunity as new state legalization materializes and return capital to shareholders over time as FCF compounds in the years ahead. We maintain our Buy rating and our 12-month PT of $61.