$Cameco Corp(CCJ)$
如果找一个近三年风头比AI更盛的板块，那必定是非核能板块莫属了。
下面是一个非主流基金经理Eric Townsend对核能概念股的痛苦总结，他认为这个泡沫可以类比2000年的互联网泡沫，只是现在还相当于96年，泡沫大爆发还在后面！
Non-consensus Uranium view:
As much as I've been an outspoken bull on uranium fundamentals for over two years, I don't think this is about fundamentals any more.
If I learned anything from running a small HF, it was that market inefficiencies and vicious or virtuous cycles of self-reinforcing feedback loops trump fundamentals every time. You can make far more by frontrunning the dumb way $USO used to roll its $CL_F position pre-pandemic than you'll ever make studying economics and fundamentals.
IMHO, the sudden acceleration in upside momentum in uranium is ALL about SPUT being ATM. Of course the fundamentals are massively bullish. We've known that for a couple of years now. So why NOW, suddenly, is everything U-related a moonshot?
It's because of the virtuous cycle of SPUT being ATM essentially providing the mechanism to reset the U price people track (spot) with the REAL price of U (term contracting price, reported only monthly, with weak transparency).
It's really simple: U is trending, people will buy more SPUT, now SPUT is finally ATM so it will buy more spot, that will move the PHONY spot price higher toward the REAL term price very quickly, that further momentum increase will draw in more tourists and pretty soon you have a face ripping rally into (wait for it) a proper intermediate-term bubble/blow-off top.
Don't get me wrong - I think SPUT can easily double or even triple from here before that blow-off happens, but I think that's what's ultimately coming: A dotcom-style frenzy panic buy on all things nuclear, huge gains, then a major reset (like 2000 dotcom bust), then a L-O-N-G sustained nuclear bull market, just as all things Internet have been in a sustained bull since the 2000-2003 washout cleaned up the dotcom mal-investment.
But right now, it's only 1996 or so in that story. We're at the "Oh my gosh, this Internet thing isn't just a fad--it's going to be really big" stage. So get ready for the dotcom-like nuclear bubble over the next year or two, then a bust/reset, then a sustained long-term nuclear bull market.
The nuclear newsflow of the last couple years perfectly set the stage. Now SPUT's ATM virtuous cycle begins.
The warning signs to watch for as the bubble develops are significant and sustained SPUT premia over NAV, and particularly, a sustained move of spot well above term, to the point that even reverse carry trades become economic. Those would be signs of a topping uranium bubble, and I'm sure they're coming within the next few years.
But as of right now, we're just at the "liftoff" phase of the dotnuclear bubble. If you failed to buy Google in 1999, now's your chance to buy Cameco.
This is only just starting, not ending. Even just the first dotcom-like phase has only just begun.