X上BOX.COM CEO AARON LEVIE发表了一篇文章，针对现在处于巨变中的SAAS行业进行了一番深入的分析。我让GEMINI做了一个总结如下：
The New Architecture: The "Factory" Model
The most critical distinction for the future is the separation of Deterministic and Non-Deterministic systems.
Software (The Machinery): Traditional enterprise software (ERP, CRM) remains vital because it is deterministic. It acts as the "machinery" in the factory—it ensures that data inputs (invoices, security permissions) produce the exact same output every time. This provides the necessary guardrails and auditability.
AI Agents (The Operators): Agents act as the non-deterministic "operators" of this machinery. They handle the fluid, human-like tasks—analyzing data, generating emails, or making decisions—and then input that work into the deterministic software record.
Why Markets Will Explode (The TAM Expansion)
Historically, software companies fought over the IT Budget, which is typically capped at 3–7% of a company's revenue.
The Shift: Because agents do the work rather than just providing the tool, software vendors can now tap into the Labor Budget (Salaries/OpEx).
The Multiplier: A legal software company previously only earned revenue based on the number of lawyers buying "seats." If agents can perform the work of junior associates (reviewing contracts), the addressable market expands from just the "software spend" to the "total legal services spend" (e.g., tapping into a $400B market rather than a $4B market).
The Battle: Incumbents vs. Startups
The text references Clayton Christensen’s Innovator’s Dilemma to predict the winners:
Incumbents have a massive advantage in "Context." They own the data, the complex workflows, and the systems of record that agents need to operate. If they adapt, they can power the agents effectively.1
Startups win in "Agent-Native" categories—areas where no software currently exists because the work was previously too complex for a rigid system (e.g., "Context Graphs" that map how work actually gets done).
The Business Model Pivot
Old Model: Per-Seat Pricing. (Monetizes human usage).2
New Model: Consumption & Usage-Based Pricing. (Monetizes agent work).
Future State: A hybrid model will emerge.3 Humans will still have "seats," but the heavy lifting done by thousands of agents will be billed based on consumption (compute, outcomes, or work units), similar to how utilities are billed.
Summary of Core vs. Context
CategoryDefinitionRole of SoftwareCoreWhat makes a company unique (Product, Strategy).Differentiating custom software or high-value human work.ContextEssential but non-differentiating (Payroll, HR, IT)."Rent" from vendors. Agents will heavily automate this to free up humans for Core work.
未来分析这些公司的维度至少要从这些维度去展开。但有一点应该很明确，就是那些纯工具类并且与现有的mission-critical应用整合不多的软件企业将面临生存挑战。