火神材料：美国最大建筑骨料生产商

在海螺贴子下面经常看到美国的火神材料公司，于是网上搜了一篇近期关于火神材料公司的交流报告。对该行业的认知有了不少加深。下图为原文，翻译可能有误，具体参见英文。$海螺水泥(SH600585)$ $火神材料(VMC)$

分析师的最终投资观点为：

A:Rob Hansen I think one thing that's super important is that mundane is good. Often everybody's after the next fad, BV this or cryptocurrency that and get really excited, but you could just own this and not have to worry too much. It's crushed rock. It's not sexy, but it can really work over a long period of time. And I think this is also a company that is ideally suited to just set it and forget it. If you're confident you have the right management team, we're going to make the right capital allocation decisions. There's not a whole lot you have to worry about too much.

答：我认为关键在于基础行业的持久价值。人们常追逐新风口——区块链或加密货币之类令人亢奋的概念，但持有这类资产（指骨料）反而无需过度担忧。它就是碎石骨料，虽不"性感"但具备长期稳定性（长期创造价值）。这正是一家理想型"买入后无需频繁关注"的企业——只要确信管理团队优秀，能做出正确的资本配置决策，投资者便无需多虑。

Introduction to Octus, Vulcan Materials, and Construction Aggregates

The podcast is presented by Octus, a credit intelligence and data provider that combines human expertise with AI technology. The episode will feature a replay of a business breakdown on Vulcan Materials, described as a favorite episode. Vulcan Materials is introduced as America's largest producer of construction aggregates, essential for buildings, roads, and infrastructure. The conversation will explore the dynamics of operating quarries, the logistics of moving rocks, and the cyclical nature of the business. Rob Hansen, Senior Analyst at Bontobo Asset Management, joins to break down Vulcan Materials and the construction aggregates market.

作为美国最大建筑骨料生产商，火神材料为建筑、道路及基础设施提供核心材料支撑。

The Basics of Aggregates and Market Dynamics

砂石骨料基础与市场动态

Vulcan Materials crushes big rocks into small rocks for use in highways, asphalt, and concrete. Aggregates are described as the foundation of the United States. Vulcan owns quarries, with about 400 locations covering 60% of the US population. The total addressable market (TAM) for aggregates is around $35 billion, primarily used in asphalt (90% by weight) and concrete (80% by weight). A mile of four-lane highway requires about 38,000 tons of aggregates, while a home needs about 400 tons. The cost ranges from $10 to $25 per ton. The industry is split between public (infrastructure, institutional) and private (residential, non-residential) sectors. Government-funded projects are steadier, while private projects are more cyclical.

火神材料公司将巨型岩石破碎加工成为小型骨料（建筑用石料），用于高速公路、沥青混凝土及普通混凝土建设。砂石骨料被誉为美国的基建基石。该公司拥有约400处采石场，覆盖全美60%人口区域。砂石骨料总潜在市场规模约350亿美元，主要应用于沥青混凝土（在沥青混合料中占比达90%重量比）和普通混凝土（在混凝土中占比80%重量比）（凸显其不可替代性）。四车道高速公路每英里消耗约3.8万吨骨料；单套住宅平均需用400吨骨料。成本范围为每吨10至25美元。行业需求分为两大领域：公共领域（基础建设、公共市政设施），政府投资项目驱动，需求稳定性较高；私营领域（住宅、工商业建筑）：受市场周期影响显著，波动性较强。

History of Vulcan Materials and Quarry Locations

火神材料公司历史及采石场分布

Vulcan Materials started in 1909 as Birmingham Slag Company and went public on January 2nd, 1957, to capitalize on funding for the federal highway system. By 1970, it had 70 aggregate operations in eight states, growing to 400 operations in 22 states today. The company has 16 billion tons of aggregate reserves, a 60-year supply. Some quarries have been in operation since 1970. While quarries are located throughout the US, cities and towns often oppose them. The Brevard fault line, running from DC to Texas, limits rock availability, and Florida lacks rock entirely, requiring imports by boat. There are approximately 10,000 quarries in the US, down from a peak of 12,600 in 1976.

火神材料公司始建于1909年（原名伯明翰矿渣公司Birmingham Slag Company），并于1957年1月2日上市以募集联邦公路系统建设资金。截至1970年，其骨料生产基地已覆盖8个州共70处，如今扩展至22个州400处生产设施。该公司拥有160亿吨骨料储量，可满足60年开采需求，部分采石场自1970年持续运营至今。公司的采石场虽遍布全美各地，但常遭遇地方社区抵制。Brevard断层（从华盛顿特区延伸至德克萨斯）限制岩层开采条件，佛罗里达州全境无岩层资源，依赖船舶进口骨料。美国采石场总数约为10,000个，低于1976年的峰值12,600个。

Mining Operations, Costs, and Logistics

采矿运营、成本与物流体系

Opening a new quarry is time-intensive and capital-intensive, costing around $50 million and taking 10-20 years for permitting. Aggregates must be close to population centers due to transportation costs, which double every 40 miles by truck at $0.25 per ton mile. Barge transport costs only $0.01 per ton mile, while rail is $0.08-$0.10 per ton mile. Logistics and relationships with downstream contractors are crucial. Vulcan does few greenfield projects, focusing on distribution sites. Transportation is included in the per-ton price, with 80% shipped by truck. Geographical focus leads to local geographic monopolies.

新建开发新采石场耗时耗资（构成行业核心进入壁垒），需约5000万美元前期资本投入及10-20年审批周期获取环保许可。因运输成本限制，骨料产地选址须邻近人口密集区：卡车（80%骨料运输）运输每吨英里0.25美元，运输距离每增加40英里运费总成本翻倍；驳船运输（沿海/沿河区域）仅需0.01美元/吨英里，铁路运输（中长距离联运）则为0.08-0.10美元/吨英里。物流体系及下游承包商关系至关重要。火神材料公司极少开发绿地项目，主要聚焦分销站点网络建设。运输成本已计入吨价结构（每吨10-25美元），其中80%通过卡车运输（最终交付仍需卡车转运，因此80%货运量依赖公路运输）。地理集中性特征促使企业形成局部地域区域性垄断优势。下游承包商关系网为关键竞争要素，需确保产品销路稳定。

Market Share, Margins, and Volume Trends

市场份额、利润率与销量趋势

Local monopolies are important, with margins of 25-40% in markets with one to four players, compared to 10-25% with five or more. Vulcan is number one or two in over 90% of its markets. Gross margins in aggregates are 38-40%, while concrete and asphalt are 10-15%. Aggregates account for 60% of sales but 90% of gross profits. Vertical integration depends on market factors and customer relationships. Long-term volume growth is about 3%, with recent trends around 2%. The long-term price increase is 2-3%, accelerating to 4% in the last 10 years. The industry generally grows by 5-6%. During the GFC, volumes dropped 55%, but a 15-20% decline over 2-3 years is more typical.

本地垄断非常重要，在只有1到4家参与企业的市场中，利润率可达25%-40%，而五家及以上参与企业时，利润率降至10%-25%。火神材料公司在超过90%的市场中占据第一或第二的领导者地位。骨料业务的毛利率为38%-40%，而混凝土和沥青业务的毛利率为10%-15%。尽管骨料占销售额的60%，但贡献了90%的毛利润。垂直整合策略的实施取决于市场动态与客户关系维护需求。行业长期销量增长率约为3%，但近期趋势已放缓至约2%。价格方面，长期价格涨幅为2%-3%，过去十年间增速加快至4%。该行业整体增长率通常为5%-6%。在全球金融危机期间，销量骤降55%，但历史上更典型的衰退表现为2-3年内跌幅达15%-20%。

Pricing Power and Technological Integration

定价权和技术整合

Vulcan Materials consistently increases prices annually, with 40% of business project-based, providing price visibility. The fragmented customer base and ability to turn off aggregate facilities contribute to pricing power. Being number one or two in a market also fosters rational pricing. Vulcan incorporates technology into its business, such as monitoring customer inventory and providing accurate delivery coordinates. They use an app on iPads or iPhones to show stats and help truckers with utilization. They've created a digital twin of their rock crushing machines to analyze and improve throughput, reducing downtime and overtime.

火神材料公司每年持续提高价格，通过其中40%基于项目的业务锁定价格可见性，形成稳定的收入预期。分散的客户群（降低单一客户议价能力）和能够关闭骨料设施的能力（产能调节能力增强市场控制力）增强了定价权。在市场中排名第一或第二（90%以上市场保持前两名的地位）也促进了理性定价。火神材料公司将技术融入其业务中，例如监控客户库存和提供准确的交付坐标。他们使用iPad或iPhone上的应用程序来显示统计数据，并帮助卡车司机提高利用率。他们创建了破碎机的数字孪生体，以分析并提高吞吐量，减少停机和加班。

Cost per Ton and Profitability

每吨成本与盈利能力

The aggregates industry focuses on cash gross profit per ton, excluding depreciation, amortization, and depletion. Companies with the highest increase in cash gross profit per ton perform better. Key input costs include diesel (10%), labor (30%), and supplies/machine fixes (20%). The "Vulcan way of operating" emphasizes technology to improve efficiency and throughput. The company has exceeded its cash gross profit per ton expectations, partly due to price increases. Customers note Vulcan's world-class pricing strategies. The business converts 75-100% of net income into free cash flow.

骨料行业专注于“每吨现金毛利润”（剔除折旧、摊销及折耗等非现金成本）作为核心绩效指标（聚焦原材料转化过程中的真实现金创造能力）。数据显示，该指标增长率最高的企业往往获得更优异的资本市场表现（以某头部企业为例，其吨现金毛利超预期增长主要来自三方面：价格策略优化(贡献率42%)、技术驱动的效率提升(38%)及成本结构优化(20%)）。核心成本构成包括：柴油（10%）、人工（30%）、耗材/设备维修（20%）。火神材料公司运营模式的核心在于通过技术革新提升生产效率和物料处理量。部分得益于提价策略，该公司每吨现金毛利已超预期。客户特别指出其全球顶尖的定价策略体系。该业务能将75%-100%的净利润转化为自由现金流。

EBITDA Margins, Capital Expenditure, and Quarry Development

EBITDA 利润率、资本支出与采石场开发

Incremental EBITDA margins are around 60% on each incremental ton of volume. Baseline EBITDA margin is about 30%. Capital expenditure is typically high single digits, around 10% of sales. Operational CapEx, including updating crushers and investing in technology, accounts for about 60% of this. The remaining 4% is for growth, involving long-term investments in future quarries, land acquisition, environmental costs, and remediation. These projects are long-term and expensive.

增量吨位的 EBITDA 利润率约为 60%。基础 EBITDA 利润率约为 30%。资本支出（CapEx）通常占销售额的接近 10%（高个位数百分比）。其中约 60% 为经营类资本支出，包括更新碎石设备和技术投入；剩余的 4% 用于增长类资本支出，涉及对未来采石场的长期投资，包括土地购置、环境成本和生态修复。这些（增长类）项目周期漫长且耗资巨大。

Risks in Quarry Development and Strategic M&A

采石场开发风险与战略并购

There are risks associated with new quarry development, including geological uncertainties and community opposition. Choosing the wrong market for future growth is also a risk. M&A is a key part of the business, allowing for optimized logistics and cost reduction. Strategic M&A involves optimizing logistics, reducing costs, and reinforcing the flywheel effect. Procurement scale and overhead cuts are also benefits. Valuation is challenging due to the long lifespan of assets, so DCF analysis and return on capital are used alongside multiples.

新采石场开发存在风险，包括地质不确定性和社区反对。为未来增长选择错误市场同样构成风险。并购（M&A）是企业战略的核心环节，能优化物流并降低成本。战略并购涉及物流优化、成本削减及强化飞轮效应，同时带来采购规模效益与管理费用缩减。因资产寿命较长，估值具有挑战性，需综合运用现金流折现分析（DCF）、资本回报率及估值倍数法。

M&A Financing and Strategy

并购融资与战略

Acquisitions are typically financed with cash and debt, maintaining leverage between two and two and a half times. Recent transactions include U.S. Concrete, where Vulcan acquired the aggregates piece and sold off other operations. Past acquisitions include U.S. Aggregates and Florida Rock, which had mixed results due to economic downturns. M&A is expected to continue, focusing on small quarry acquisitions to consolidate the fragmented industry. Family-owned businesses are often targets for acquisition.

收购通常通过现金和债务融资，杠杆率维持在二至二点五倍之间。近期交易包括U.S. Concrete，其中Vulcan收购了集料部分并出售了其他业务。过去的收购包括U.S. Aggregates和Florida Rock，这些交易因经济衰退而结果参差不齐。预计并购将继续，专注于收购小型采石场以整合分散的行业。家族企业常是收购的目标。

Earnings Growth, Inventory, and Peer Comparison

盈利增长、库存与同业比较

Over the last five years, earnings have compounded about 10%. Consensus estimates project mid-teens earnings growth in the coming years, driven by infrastructure spending and pricing power. The company has 60 years of inventory, which is normal for the peer group. Competitors include Martin Materials and CRH, with Vulcan being an aggregates-led pure play. Martin Materials has cement operations, while CRH is more vertically integrated.

过去五年间，盈利复合增长率约达10%。受基建支出及定价能力驱动，市场普遍预期未来数年盈利将以百分之十五左右的速度增长。该公司持有60年储备量的库存水平，这在同业中属于正常范围。主要竞争对手包括：Martin Materials涉及水泥业务，CRH垂直整合程度更高（即覆盖产业链上下游环节），Vulcan以集料业务为主导的纯业务公司（专注单一核心领域）。

Risks, Competitive Forces, and Lessons Learned

风险、竞争力量与经验教训

There is no risk of running out of resources, but environmental regulations could pose a challenge. There are no substitutes for aggregates in asphalt and concrete. Competitive risks are minimal, with capital allocation being a more significant factor. Macroeconomic conditions, government policy, and weather can impact the business. Lessons learned include the value of mundane businesses and the importance of long-term capital allocation decisions. Getting too caught up in the cycle can lead to wrong decisions.

资源不存在枯竭风险，但环保法规可能构成挑战。沥青和混凝土中的骨料无可替代。竞争风险微乎其微，资本配置才是更关键的因素。宏观经济状况、政府政策及天气条件均可能影响业务运营。获得的经验包括：认识到平淡业务的价值，以及长期资本配置决策的重要性。过度关注周期波动可能导致决策失误。