于我而言,这哥两真是一道难题。
AI 对adbe的冲击,到底有多大,我完全摸不着头脑。adbe生意目前看稳健增长,AI 应用似乎还有可能成为助推器。但是,回顾科技史,直觉告诉我,AI 原生应用有不低的概率彻底颠覆adbe的商业模式。
至于uber,面对智能驾驶,还能否保持它的护城河“双边网络”?我见过两个比我聪明许多的人,一个论述网络效应依然存在,而且有理有据。一个强调自动驾驶的重资产投入,完全重构供应端,打破网络效应,特别在uber赚大钱的少数高密度市场,听上去也很合逻辑。
幸好投资不需要解难题。更何况现在市场高位,这哥两估值并不低。把这些题留给聪明人吧。这是他们该赚的钱。
贴一段芒格老人家的话,我读了一遍又一遍。
People are always trying to be smart.
They want to talk, they want to trade, they want to prove something.
Warren doesn’t care about that.
He doesn’t try to show people how smart he is.
He’s perfectly willing to look like an idiot for a long time.
He just sits there and waits.
Most people can’t do that.
They feel they have to do something.
They feel they have to prove they’re intelligent.
Warren has learned that you don’t get paid for activity.
You get paid for being right.
And the big money is not in the buying or selling,
but in the waiting.”