博通(AVGO) 2025年第四季度盈利电话会议记录

100truth行大运

2025-12-13 17:16 · 广东

$Broadcom Inc.(AVGO)$ $英伟达(NVDA)$ $谷歌C(GOOG)$

Company Participants

Ji Yoo - Director of Investor Relations
Hock Tan - President, CEO & Executive Director
Kirsten Spears - CFO & Chief Accounting Officer

Ji Yoo - 投资者关系总监 Hock Tan - 总裁、首席执行官兼执行董事 Kirsten Spears - 首席财务官兼首席会计官

Conference Call Participants

Vivek Arya - BofA Securities, Research Division
Ross Seymore - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division
Harlan Sur - JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division
Blayne Curtis - Jefferies LLC, Research Division
Stacy Rasgon - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division
James Schneider - Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division
Benjamin Reitzes - Melius Research LLC
Christopher Muse - Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., Research Division
Harsh Kumar - Piper Sandler & Co., Research Division
Karl Ackerman - BNP Paribas, Research Division
Christopher Rolland - Susquehanna Financial Group, LLLP, Research Division
Joseph Moore - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Vivek Arya - 美银证券，研究部 Ross Seymore - 德意志银行，研究部 Harlan Sur - 摩根大通，研究部 Blayne Curtis - Jefferies 公司，研究部 Stacy Rasgon - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC.，研究部 James Schneider - 高盛集团，研究部 Benjamin Reitzes - Melius Research 公司 Christopher Muse - Cantor Fitzgerald 公司，研究部 Harsh Kumar - Piper Sandler 公司，研究部 Karl Ackerman - 法国巴黎银行，研究部 Christopher Rolland - Susquehanna 金融集团，LLLP，研究部 Joseph Moore - 摩根士丹利，研究部

Presentation

Operator

Welcome to Broadcom Inc.'s Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Financial Results Conference Call.

欢迎参加博通公司2025财年第四季度及全年财务业绩电话会议。

At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Ji Yoo, Head of Investor Relations of Broadcom Inc.

现在，为了开场致辞和介绍，我将电话会议交给 Broadcom Inc. 的投资者关系主管 Ji Yoo。

Ji Yoo
Director of Investor Relations

Thank you, Sheri, and good afternoon, everyone. Joining me on today's call are Hock Tan, President and CEO; Kirsten Spears, Chief Financial Officer; and Charlie Kawwas, President Semiconductor Solutions Group.

谢谢，谢丽。各位下午好。今天与我一同参加电话会议的有：总裁兼首席执行官霍克·谭（Hock Tan）；首席财务官克尔斯滕·斯皮尔斯（Kirsten Spears）；以及半导体解决方案集团总裁查理·卡瓦斯（Charlie Kawwas）。

Broadcom distributed a press release and financial tables after the market close, describing our financial performance for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025. If you did not receive a copy, you may obtain the information from the Investors section of Broadcom's website at broadcom.com.

博通在收盘后发布了一份新闻稿和财务报表，介绍了公司2025财年第四季度及全年财务业绩。如果您未收到副本，可从博通网站 broadcom.com 的投资者关系栏目获取相关信息。

This conference call is being webcast live, and an audio replay of the call can be accessed for 1 year through the Investors section of Broadcom's website.

本次电话会议正在进行网络直播，会议的音频回放可通过博通公司网站的投资者关系栏目获取，并保留一年。

During the prepared remarks, Hock and Kirsten will be providing details of our fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 results, guidance for our first quarter of fiscal year 2026 as well as commentary regarding the business environment. We'll take questions after the end of our prepared comments.

在预先准备好的讲话中，Hock 和 Kirsten 将详细介绍我们2025财年第四季度及全年业绩、2026财年第一季度的业绩指引，以及对商业环境的评论。我们将在预先准备的发言结束后进行问答环节。

Please refer to our press release today and our recent filings with the SEC for information on the specific risk factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements made on this call.

有关可能导致我们实际结果与本次电话会议中所作前瞻性声明存在重大差异的具体风险因素，请参阅我们今天发布的新闻稿以及最近向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交的文件。

In addition to U.S. GAAP reporting, Broadcom reports certain financial measures on a non-GAAP basis. A reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP measures is included in the tables attached to today's press release. Comments made during today's call will primarily refer to our non-GAAP financial results.

除按照美国通用会计准则（U.S. GAAP）报告外，博通还以非GAAP基准报告某些财务指标。GAAP与非GAAP指标之间的调节已在今天新闻稿所附的表格中列示。今天电话会议中的评论将主要涉及我们的非GAAP财务结果。

I'll now turn the call over to Hock.

现在我把电话交给Hock。

Hock Tan
President, CEO & Executive Director

Thank you, Ji, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. Well, we just ended our Q4 fiscal '25. And before I get into details of that quarter, let me recap the year.

谢谢，Ji，也感谢各位今天参加我们的会议。好的，我们刚刚结束了2025财年第四季度。在详细介绍这个季度之前，让我先回顾一下整个财年。

In our fiscal 2025, consolidated revenue grew 24% year-over-year to a record $64 billion, and it's driven by AI semiconductors and VMware. AI revenue grew 65% year-over-year to $20 billion, driving the semiconductor revenue for this company to a record $37 billion for the year. In our Infrastructure Software business, strong adoption of VMware Cloud Foundation or VCF, as we call it, drove revenue growth of 26% year-on-year to $27 billion.

在我们2025财年，合并收入同比增长24%，达到创纪录的640亿美元，主要得益于人工智能半导体和VMware业务。人工智能相关收入同比增长65%，达到200亿美元，推动公司半导体业务全年收入创下370亿美元的新高。在基础设施软件业务方面，VMware Cloud Foundation（简称VCF）获得强劲采用，推动该业务收入同比增长26%，达到270亿美元。

In summary, 2025 was another strong year for Broadcom. And we see the spending momentum by our customers for -- in AI, continuing to accelerate in 2026. Now let's move on to the results of our fourth quarter 2025.

总之，2025年对Broadcom而言又是强劲的一年。我们看到客户在人工智能领域的支出势头将继续加速，并在2026年持续保持增长。现在让我们来看一下2025年第四季度的业绩结果。

Total revenue was a record $18 billion, up 28% year-on-year and above our guidance on better-than-expected growth in AI semiconductors as well as Infrastructure Software. Q4 consolidated adjusted EBITDA was a record $12.12 billion (sic) [ $12.218 billion ], up 34% year-on-year. So let me give you more color on our two segments.

总收入创下180亿美元的纪录，同比增长28%，超出预期，主要得益于AI半导体以及基础设施软件业务增长好于预期。第四季度合并调整后EBITDA创下122.18亿美元（原文为121.2亿美元）的新高，同比增长34%。接下来让我详细介绍一下我们的两个业务部门。

In Semiconductors, revenue was $11.1 billion as year-on-year growth accelerated to 35%. And this robust growth was driven by the AI semiconductor revenue of $6.5 billion, which was up 74% year-on-year. And this represents a growth trajectory exceeding 10x over the 11 quarters we have reported this line of business. Our custom accelerated business more than doubled year-over-year, as we see our customers increase adoption of XPUs, as we call those custom accelerators in training their LLM and monetizing their platforms through inferencing APIs and applications.

在半导体领域，收入达到111亿美元，同比增长加速至35%。这一强劲增长主要得益于人工智能半导体业务收入达65亿美元，同比增长74%。这表明，在我们报告该业务线的11个季度中，其增长轨迹已超过10倍。我们的定制加速业务收入同比实现翻倍以上增长，因为我们看到客户越来越多地采用我们称之为定制加速器的XPUs，用于训练大语言模型（LLM），并通过推理API和应用程序实现其平台的变现。

These XPUs, I may add, are not only being used to train and inference internal workloads by our customers, the same XPUs in some situations have been extended externally to other LLM peers, best exemplified at Google, where the TPUs use in creating Gemini, have also been used for AI cloud computing by Apple, Coherent and SSI as an example. And the scale at which we see this happening could be significant. And as you are aware, last quarter, Q3 '25, we received a $10 billion order to sell the latest TPU Ironwood racks to Anthropic. And this was our fourth customer that we mentioned. And in this quarter Q4, we received an additional $11 billion order from the same customer for delivery in late 2026.

我要补充的是，这些XPUs不仅被我们的客户用于训练和推理内部工作负载，在某些情况下，它们还被对外扩展提供给其他大型语言模型（LLM）同行使用。一个最典型的例子是谷歌：其用于创建Gemini的TPUs，也被苹果、Coherent和SSI等公司用于AI云计算。我们看到这种趋势的发展规模可能会非常可观。正如你们所知，在上个季度，即2025年第三季度，我们收到了一笔100亿美元的订单，向Anthropic出售最新的TPU Ironwood机架，这也是我们此前提到的第四位客户。而在本季度（第四季度），我们又从同一客户处获得了额外110亿美元的订单，预计交付时间为2026年底。

But that does not mean our other two customers are using TPUs. In fact, they prefer to control their own destiny by continuing to drive their multiyear journey to create their own custom AI accelerators or XPU racks, as we call them. And I'm pleased today to report that during this quarter, we acquired a fifth XPU customer through a $1 billion order placed for delivery in late 2026.

但这并不意味着我们的另外两位客户正在使用TPU。事实上，他们更倾向于掌控自己的命运，继续推进多年计划，自行研发定制的人工智能加速器，也就是我们所说的XPU机架。今天我很高兴地宣布，在本季度，我们通过一笔10亿美元的订单，获得了一位第五个XPU客户，该订单的产品将于2026年底交付。

Now moving on to AI networking. Demand here has even been stronger as we see customers build out their data center infrastructure ahead of deploying AI accelerators. Our current order backlog for AI switches exceeds $10 billion as our latest 102-terabit per second Tomahawk 6 switch, the first and only one of its capability out there continues to book at record rates. And this is just a subset of what we have.

接下来谈谈AI网络。这一领域的需求更为强劲，因为客户正在部署AI加速器之前积极建设数据中心基础设施。我们目前AI交换机的订单积压已超过100亿美元，而我们的最新款102太比特每秒Tomahawk 6交换机是目前市场上唯一具备此能力的产品，持续以创纪录的速度获得订单。而这还只是我们产品组合中的一部分。

We have also secured record orders on DSPs, optical components like lasers and PCI Express switches to be deployed -- all to be deployed in AI data centers. And all these components combined with our XPUs, bring our total order on hand in excess of $73 billion today, which is almost half Broadcom's consolidated backlog of $162 billion. We expect this $73 billion in AI backlog to be delivered over the next 18 months. And in Q1 fiscal '26, we expect our AI revenue to double year-on-year to $8.2 billion.

我们还在DSP、激光器等光器件以及PCI Express交换机方面获得了创纪录的订单，这些都将部署于AI数据中心。所有这些组件与我们的XPU相结合，使我们目前在手的订单总额超过了730亿美元，几乎占博通公司1620亿美元合并积压订单的一半。我们预计这730亿美元的AI积压订单将在未来18个月内完成交付。在2026财年第一季度，我们预计AI相关收入将同比增长一倍，达到82亿美元。

Turning to non-AI semiconductors. Q4 revenue of $4.6 billion was up 2% year-on-year and up 16% sequentially based on favorable wireless seasonality. Year-on-year, broadband showed solid recovery, wireless was flat and all the other end markets were down as enterprise spending continued to show limited signs of recovery. And accordingly, in Q1 we forecast non-AI-semiconductor revenue to be approximately $4.1 billion, flat from a year ago, down sequentially due to wireless seasonality.

转向非AI半导体业务。第四季度营收为46亿美元，同比增长2%，环比增长16%，主要得益于无线业务良好的季节性因素。与去年同期相比，宽带业务实现稳健复苏，无线业务持平，其他所有终端市场均有所下滑，因企业支出仍未显现出明显的复苏迹象。因此，我们预计第一季度非AI半导体业务营收约为41亿美元，与去年同期持平，但受无线业务季节性因素影响，环比将有所下降。

Let me now talk about our Infrastructure Software segment. Q4 Infrastructure software revenue of $6.9 billion was up 19% year-on-year and above our outlook of $6.7 billion. Bookings continue to be strong as total contract value booked in Q4 exceeded $10.4 billion versus $8.2 billion a year ago. We ended the year with $73 billion of Infrastructure Software backlog, up from $49 billion a year ago. We expect renewals to be seasonal in Q1 and forecast Infrastructure Software revenue to be approximately $6.8 billion. We still expect, however, that for fiscal '26 Infrastructure Software revenue to grow low double-digit percentage.

现在让我谈谈我们的基础设施软件业务部门。第四季度基础设施软件收入为69亿美元，同比增长19%，高于我们预期的67亿美元。订单继续保持强劲势头，第四季度签订的合同总价值超过104亿美元，而去年同期为82亿美元。截至年底，我们的基础设施软件积压订单达到730亿美元，高于去年同期的490亿美元。我们预计第一季度续约情况将呈现季节性波动，并预测基础设施软件收入约为68亿美元。不过，我们仍然预计在2026财年，基础设施软件收入将实现低两位数百分比的增长。

So here's what we see in 2026, directionally, we expect AI revenue to continue to accelerate and drive most of our growth. And non-AI semiconductor revenue to be stable. Infrastructure software revenue will continue to be driven by VMware growth at low double digits. And for Q1 '26, we expect consolidated revenue of approximately $19.1 billion, up 28% year-on-year. And we expect adjusted EBITDA to be approximately 67% of revenue.

因此，展望2026年，我们的方向性判断是：AI收入将继续加速增长，并推动我们大部分业务增长；非AI半导体收入将保持稳定；基础设施软件收入将继续由VMware的低两位数增长带动。对于2026财年第一季度，我们预计合并收入约为191亿美元，同比增长28%。同时，我们预计调整后的EBITDA将达到收入的约67%。

And with that, let me turn the call over to Kirsten.

接下来，我把电话交给 Kirsten。

Kirsten Spears
CFO & Chief Accounting Officer

Thank you, Hock. Let me now provide additional detail on our Q4 financial performance. Consolidated revenue was a record $18 billion for the quarter, up 28% from a year ago. Gross margin was 77.9% of revenue in the quarter, better than we originally guided on higher software revenues and product mix within semiconductors.

谢谢，霍克。现在我来进一步说明我们第四季度的财务表现。本季度综合收入创下新高，达到180亿美元，同比增长28%。本季度毛利率占收入的77.9%，由于软件收入更高以及半导体产品组合的优化，表现优于我们最初的指引。

Consolidated operating expenses were $2.1 billion, of which $1.5 billion was research and development. Q4 operating income was a record $11.9 billion, up 35% from a year ago. Now on a sequential basis, even as gross margin was down 50 basis points on semiconductor product mix, operating margin increased 70 basis points sequentially to 66.2% on favorable operating leverage.

合并运营费用为21亿美元，其中15亿美元用于研发。第四季度的营业利润创下119亿美元的新高，同比增长35%。从环比来看，尽管由于半导体产品组合的影响，毛利率下降了50个基点，但由于运营杠杆有利，营业利润率环比提高了70个基点，达到66.2%。

Adjusted EBITDA of $12.2 billion or 68% of revenue was above our guidance of 67%. This figure excludes $148 million of depreciation. Now a review of the P&L for our 2 segments, starting with Semiconductors.

调整后的EBITDA为122亿美元，占收入的68%，高于我们67%的预期。该数据未包含1.48亿美元的折旧费用。现在我们来回顾一下两个业务部门的损益情况，首先从半导体业务开始。

Revenue for our Semiconductor Solutions segment was a record $11.1 billion with growth accelerating to 35% year-on-year, driven by AI. Semiconductor revenue represented 61% of total revenue in the quarter. Gross margin for our Semiconductor Solutions segment was approximately 68%. Operating expenses increased 16% year-on-year to $1.1 billion on increased investment in R&D for leading-edge AI semiconductors. Semiconductor operating margin of 59% was up 250 basis points year-on-year.

我们的半导体解决方案业务部门收入创下111亿美元的纪录，同比增长加速至35%，主要得益于人工智能（AI）的推动。本季度，半导体收入占总收入的61%。半导体解决方案业务部门的毛利率约为68%。由于加大对先进人工智能半导体研发的投资，运营费用同比增加16%，达到11亿美元。半导体业务的营业利润率为59%，同比提升250个基点。

Now moving to Infrastructure Software. Revenue for Infrastructure Software of $6.9 billion was up 19% year-on-year and represented 39% of total revenue. Gross margin for Infrastructure Software was 93% in the quarter compared to 91% a year ago. Operating expenses were $1.1 billion in the quarter, resulting in Infrastructure Software operating margin of 78%. This compares to operating margin of 72% a year ago, reflecting the completion of the integration of VMware.

现在转向基础设施软件业务。本季度基础设施软件收入为69亿美元，同比增长19%，占总收入的39%。本季度基础设施软件毛利率为93%，高于去年同期的91%。本季度运营支出为11亿美元，使得基础设施软件营业利润率达到78%，而去年同期为72%，这反映了VMware整合工作已完成。

Moving on to cash flow. Free cash flow in the quarter was $7.5 billion and represented 41% of revenue. We spent $237 million on capital expenditures. Days sales outstanding were 36 days in the fourth quarter compared to 29 days a year ago. We ended the fourth quarter with inventory of $2.3 billion, up 4% sequentially. Our days of inventory on hand were 58 days in Q4 compared to 66 days in Q3 as we continue to remain disciplined on how we manage inventory across the ecosystem. We ended the fourth quarter with $16.2 billion of cash, up $5.5 billion sequentially on strong cash flow generation. The weighted average coupon rate in years to maturity of our gross principal fixed rate debt of $67.1 billion is 4% and 7.2 years, respectively.

接下来谈谈现金流。本季度的自由现金流为75亿美元，占收入的41%。我们在资本支出上投入了2.37亿美元。第四季度应收账款周转天数为36天，去年同期为29天。第四季度末我们的库存为23亿美元，环比增长4%。由于我们继续在生态系统中严格管理库存，第四季度的库存持有天数为58天，而第三季度为66天。得益于强劲的现金流生成，我们以162亿美元的现金结束了第四季度，环比增加55亿美元。我们总额为671亿美元的固定利率债务的加权平均票面利率和剩余到期年限分别为4%和7.2年。

Turning to capital allocation. In Q4, we paid stockholders $2.8 billion of cash dividends based on a quarterly common stock cash dividend to $0.59 per share. In Q1, we expect the non-GAAP diluted share count to be approximately 4.97 billion shares, excluding the potential impact of any share repurchases.

谈到资本配置，第四季度我们向股东支付了28亿美元的现金股息，基于每股0.59美元的季度普通股现金股息。第一季度，我们预计非GAAP摊薄后股本约为49.7亿股，不包括任何股票回购可能产生的影响。

Now let me recap our financial performance for fiscal year 2025. Our revenue hit a record $63.9 billion with organic growth accelerating to 24% year-on-year. Semiconductor revenue was $36.9 billion, up 22% year-over-year. Infrastructure Software revenue was $27 billion, up 26% year-on-year. Fiscal 2025 adjusted EBITDA was $43 billion and represented 67% of revenue. Free cash flow grew 39% year-on-year to $26.9 billion.

现在让我回顾一下我们2025财年的财务表现。我们的收入达到创纪录的639亿美元，有机增长率加速至同比增长24%。半导体业务收入为369亿美元，同比增长22%；基础设施软件业务收入为270亿美元，同比增长26%。2025财年调整后EBITDA为430亿美元，占收入的67%。自由现金流同比增长39%，达到269亿美元。

For fiscal 2025, we returned $17.5 billion of cash to shareholders in the form of $11.1 billion of dividends and $6.4 billion in share repurchases and elimination. Aligned with our ability to generate increased cash flows in the preceding year, we are announcing an increase in our quarterly common stock cash dividend in Q1 fiscal 2026 to $0.65 per share, an increase of 10% from the prior quarter. We intend to maintain this target quarterly dividend throughout fiscal '26, subject to quarterly board approval. This implies our fiscal 2026 annual common stock dividend to be a record $2.60 per share, an increase of 10% year-on-year.

在2025财年，我们以111亿美元的股息和64亿美元的股票回购及注销形式，向股东返还了共计175亿美元的现金。鉴于我们在上一财年现金流增长的能力，我们宣布在2026财年第一季度将普通股季度现金股息提高至每股0.65美元，较上一季度增长10%。我们计划在2026财年每个季度维持这一目标股息水平，但需经董事会每季度批准。这意味着2026财年我们的年度普通股股息将达到创纪录的每股2.60美元，同比增长10%。

I would like to highlight that this represents the 15th consecutive increase in annual dividends since we initiated dividends in fiscal 2011. The Board also approved an extension of our share repurchase program, of which $7.5 billion remains through the end of calendar year 2026.

我想强调的是，这标志着自我们于2011财年启动分红以来，年度股息连续第15次增长。董事会还批准了我们股票回购计划的延期，该计划将延续至2026年底，尚余75亿美元额度。

Now moving to guidance. Our guidance for Q1 is for consolidated revenue of $19.1 billion, up 28% year-on-year. We forecast Semiconductor revenue of approximately $12.3 billion, up 50% year-on-year. Within this, we expect Q1 AI semiconductor revenue of $8.2 billion, up approximately 100% year-on-year. We expect Infrastructure Software revenue of approximately $6.8 billion, up 2% year-on-year.

现在来看业绩指引。我们对第一季度的指引为综合营收191亿美元，同比增长28%。我们预计半导体业务营收约为123亿美元，同比增长50%。其中，预计第一季度AI半导体业务营收为82亿美元，同比增长约100%。我们预计基础设施软件业务营收约为68亿美元，同比增长2%。
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