@黑色面包
今天和一个goldman的trader聊起了fiserv，他认为现在不是做多的好时机，借机分享一下也希望听听您的想法。以下是他的一些argument：
1. He said that it is highly unlikely that Fiserv will see an increase in its stock price in the near future because of the low short float. The short float is now only 3.7%, meaning that we do not have loads of shorts that can be covered if Fiserv issues some promising earnings report (even the moderate ones). He argues that the ones that do see a pump in stock prices soon will be the ones having very high short float, like 40-50%, where even some moderate news will cause people to cover their shorts, leading to price increases. This is his first argument that stock prices are not going to go up unless there is a HUGE earnings report showing that Fiserv has improved dramatically from the past.
2. Secondly, he argues for the correlation between EPS and stock price. He showed a chart and it shows that both variables have moved quite consistently for the entire year of 2025, even following the 40% dip in a single day. In that case, he argues that the stock prices are not going to diverge from this, unless EPS forecasts go through the roof. He thought that such a situation was highly unlikely to happen. His view is that the focus should be on whether the stock price has deviated from EPS. Unfortunately, Fiserv is not in a position where investors can capture this opportunity.
3. He was confused by the fact that it took the new CEO so long to expose the problems with his predecessor. Usually, new CEOs do a “kitchen sink” and have a total reset by setting low expectations bu it took Michael 6 months to drop the nuke. He is curious why "洗大澡" did not happen in Q2 but in Q3.
这可能是CFO在Q2还没有换的原因？
4. Regarding new market expansions, he argues that there is too much uncertainty. He is not sure if the new expansion in Japan will cause an increase in OpEx and the potential ramifications on Operating Income. This is something he is not willing to risk with because, linking back to his first two arguments, he wants to see a big earnings report that can move the stock price, given the low short float and low EPS expectations.
$费哲金融服务(FISV)$
查看图片