$凯斯纽荷兰(CNH)$ 进了今年哥伦比亚大学Heilbrunn价值投资中心的5x5x5投资组合，看了一下这个学生写的逻辑，还是挺扎实的，比如用CNH上市的最大经销商$Titan Machinery(TITN)$ 的库存以及FRED制造业总库存数据(网页链接，趋势下降明显快于总制造器械库存）去交叉验证CNH自身的生产周期，还有股东结构和资金流的分析，同时IRR和估值的预测也比较合理。我们过去一年其实是在慢慢减少这个公司的头寸的，因为预期回报对比去年暑假写这篇文章时候有所下降，一般还是希望underwrite 15%+ IRR的投资逻辑。Anyways, 有兴趣的朋友可以读一下：网页链接
“Destocking began late last year and accelerated into its latest fiscal quarter. On the recent earnings call, CEO Bryan Knutson highlighted a significant $304 million inventory reduction, with additional reductions to continue. However, he also stated the dealer will now begin to optimize its inventory mix as well, rapidly clearing older, used equipment for CNH’s newer, more advanced products that will eventually benefit CNH margins. This rapid destocking did not take place during the last ag downturn, which contributed to a prolonged 5-year downcycle.”【这部分美中不足的是没有解释和对比为什么这次去库存周期比上个周期要快 -- 这次周期更短的最核心原因是疫情期间的供应链零部件供给限制，叠加过去一年多几个主要玩家大幅减少产能利用，两重叠加导致的结果。这里逻辑没有说清楚。】